The Challenger Launch Decision

1. The Rule of Seven: Catastrophes Don't Just Happen

No crash happens in isolation or as the result of a single event. It requires a minimum of 7 things to go wrong in order for an airplane to crash. And one of those 7 is always human error.

Sh!t doesn't just happen. Catastrophes are not random, meaningless events that we're helpless against. They are the result of a series of cascade events, with at least one involving human error. By understanding this, we can predict and prevent many disasters.

• The Rule of 7: A minimum of 7 things must go wrong for a catastrophe to occur
• At least one of these factors always involves human error
• Cascade events: A series of smaller issues that lead to the final catastrophic event
• Delusion events: Near-misses that reinforce complacency

By recognizing these patterns and addressing potential cascade events, we can significantly reduce the risk of catastrophes occurring.

2. Preparation Is Key: Adopt a Catastrophe Mindset

Often, many of the victims were innocent and not responsible, but we must focus on those who are responsible and in charge and made the key decisions. Or didn't make a key decision.

Expect the unexpected. A catastrophe mindset involves anticipating potential problems and preparing for them before they occur. This approach is not about being pessimistic, but rather being proactive and realistic.

• Anticipate potential problems
• Prepare for various scenarios
• Train and equip yourself and your team
• Develop contingency plans

By adopting this mindset, you can reduce anxiety about potential disasters and increase your chances of successfully navigating a crisis if one does occur.

3. Leadership and Courage Are Essential in Crisis

Often, in order to deal with a cascade event, leadership and courage are needed to go against a culture of complacency and fear.

Be the voice of reason. In times of crisis, strong leadership and courage are crucial to overcome complacency and fear. Leaders must be willing to make difficult decisions and go against the grain when necessary.

• Recognize and address potential problems early
• Communicate clearly and effectively
• Make tough decisions when required
• Lead by example

Effective leadership during a crisis can mean the difference between a near-miss and a full-blown catastrophe.

4. Focus on Both Big Picture and Details

We generally think in one of two different ways: a big picture thinker or a detail thinker. Both types are needed. Understand yourself and those in your organization.

Balance is crucial. To effectively prevent and manage catastrophes, it's essential to consider both the big picture and the small details. Organizations need both types of thinkers to identify potential issues and develop comprehensive solutions.

Big picture thinkers:

• Identify patterns and trends
• See connections between seemingly unrelated events
• Develop overarching strategies

Detail thinkers:

• Spot specific problems or inconsistencies
• Implement precise solutions
• Ensure thorough execution of plans

By combining these perspectives, organizations can create more robust catastrophe prevention and management strategies.

5. Conduct Thorough Area Studies

You must conduct an Area Study of your Catastrophe Area of Operations (AO). Your home, your work, and any other locales where you spend a significant amount of time.

Know your environment. Conducting thorough area studies of your key locations helps you identify potential risks and develop appropriate prevention and response strategies.

Key aspects of an area study:

• Identify potential threats and hazards
• Locate critical resources (hospitals, police stations, etc.)
• Determine evacuation routes
• Assess environmental factors

By understanding your environment in detail, you can better prepare for and respond to potential catastrophes.

6. Use the CARVER Formula for Vulnerability Assessment

CARVER is a formula we use in Special Forces to assess targets for specific missions. It is the way we find critical nodes and the places where catastrophe is most likely to happen; or be made to happen.

Identify vulnerabilities systematically. The CARVER formula provides a structured approach to assessing potential vulnerabilities in your organization or environment.

CARVER stands for:

• Criticality: How important is the target?
• Accessibility: Can the target be reached?
• Recognizability: Can the target be identified?
• Vulnerability: How susceptible is the target to attack or failure?
• Effect: What would be the impact of an attack or failure?
• Recuperability: How quickly can the target recover?

By applying this formula, you can identify and prioritize potential weaknesses and develop targeted strategies to address them.

7. Implement the 10th Man Strategy

If 9 people agree, then the 10th man must disagree regardless of how crazy it sounds.

Challenge assumptions. The 10th Man strategy encourages organizations to actively seek out and consider contrarian viewpoints, even when there seems to be a consensus.

Key aspects of the 10th Man strategy:

• Designate someone to play devil's advocate
• Encourage open-minded consideration of alternative perspectives
• Require the 10th Man to provide supporting evidence for their position
• Use this process to uncover potential blind spots or overlooked issues

By implementing this strategy, organizations can avoid groupthink and identify potential problems that might otherwise be missed.

8. Learn from Past Mistakes: Conduct After Action Reviews

The hardest AARs to conduct are when things go well. To incorporate catastrophe thinking into a successful event.

Continuous improvement is vital. After Action Reviews (AARs) are essential for learning from both successes and failures. They help organizations identify areas for improvement and prevent future catastrophes.

Key elements of an effective AAR:

• Honesty and openness
• Focus on both successes and failures
• Identify lessons learned
• Develop actionable improvements

By consistently conducting thorough AARs, organizations can continuously improve their catastrophe prevention and management capabilities.

9. Perseverance Triumphs Over Tragedy

The human spirit can overcome the most difficult terrain and weather.

Never give up. The story of the survivors of Uruguayan Air Force Flight 571 demonstrates the incredible power of human perseverance in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds.

Lessons from the survivors:

• Maintain hope even in dire circumstances
• Work together as a team
• Be willing to make difficult decisions
• Adapt to changing situations

By cultivating a spirit of perseverance, individuals and organizations can increase their chances of surviving and overcoming catastrophic events.

10. Human Error Is Always a Factor in Catastrophes

If we plan and prepare adequately, we can delete the human error cascade event from the situation, thus avoiding the final event.

Acknowledge human fallibility. Recognizing that human error is always a factor in catastrophes allows us to develop strategies to mitigate its impact.

Ways to reduce human error:

• Implement robust training programs
• Develop and follow standard operating procedures
• Encourage open communication about mistakes
• Use technology to support human decision-making

By acknowledging and addressing the potential for human error, we can significantly reduce the risk of catastrophes occurring.

Last updated: November 19, 2024