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Radical Uncertainty
by Mervyn A. King • 2020
When the future is genuinely unknowable, stories guide us better than probability ever could.
3.86
1k+
Radical Uncertainty Summary
Radical Uncertainty 91%
When the future is genuinely unknowable, stories guide us better than probability ever could.
by Mervyn A. King 2020
3.86
1k+ ratings
Fooled By Randomness & The Black Swan
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2008
Stability is an illusion, prediction is a scam: the architecture of a life that needs the chaos.
4.17
287
Fooled By Randomness & The Black Swan Summary
Fooled By Randomness & The Black Swan 90%
Stability is an illusion, prediction is a scam: the architecture of a life that needs the chaos.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2008
4.17
287 ratings
The Art of Uncertainty
by David Spiegelhalter • 2024
A statistician reframes luck, chance, and ignorance as manageable relationships, not cosmic curses.
3.78
833
The Art of Uncertainty Summary
The Art of Uncertainty 89%
A statistician reframes luck, chance, and ignorance as manageable relationships, not cosmic curses.
by David Spiegelhalter 2024
3.78
833 ratings
How to Measure Anything Workbook
by Douglas W. Hubbard • 2014
Why everything is measurable and how to do it: a toolkit for turning uncertainties into dollars.
4.08
219
How to Measure Anything Workbook Summary
How to Measure Anything Workbook 89%
Why everything is measurable and how to do it: a toolkit for turning uncertainties into dollars.
by Douglas W. Hubbard 2014
4.08
219 ratings
Incerto 4-Book Bundle
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2011
Some things get stronger from disorder. Most of what we build gets this backward.
4.57
497
Incerto 4-Book Bundle Summary
Incerto 4-Book Bundle 89%
Some things get stronger from disorder. Most of what we build gets this backward.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2011
4.57
497 ratings
The Flaw of Averages
by Sam L. Savage • 2009
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
3.86
574
The Flaw of Averages Summary
The Flaw of Averages 89%
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
by Sam L. Savage 2009
3.86
574 ratings
The Signal and the Noise
by Nate Silver • 2012
Why weather forecasters improve while economists flounder, and what that reveals about prediction.
3.97
53k+
The Signal and the Noise Summary
The Signal and the Noise 89%
Why weather forecasters improve while economists flounder, and what that reveals about prediction.
by Nate Silver 2012
3.97
53k+ ratings
Future Babble
by Dan Gardner • 2010
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
3.79
737
Future Babble Summary
Future Babble 89%
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
by Dan Gardner 2010
3.79
737 ratings
The Failure of Risk Management
by Douglas W. Hubbard • 2009
Standard risk management makes decisions worse than guessing. The fix is simpler than you think.
3.95
413
The Failure of Risk Management Summary
The Failure of Risk Management 89%
Standard risk management makes decisions worse than guessing. The fix is simpler than you think.
by Douglas W. Hubbard 2009
3.95
413 ratings
The Black Swan
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2007
The bell curve is a map that fails exactly where the terrain gets dangerous.
3.96
123k+
The Black Swan Summary
The Black Swan 89%
The bell curve is a map that fails exactly where the terrain gets dangerous.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2007
3.96
123k+ ratings
The Zurich Axioms
by Gunther Max • 1985
Swiss bankers know that getting rich means worrying more, not less, and selling before you're ready.
3.98
3k+
The Zurich Axioms Summary
The Zurich Axioms 89%
Swiss bankers know that getting rich means worrying more, not less, and selling before you're ready.
by Gunther Max 1985
3.98
3k+ ratings
The Strategy Paradox
by Michael E. Raynor • 2007
The strategies that win big also lose big. The escape: a portfolio of options.
3.89
300
The Strategy Paradox Summary
The Strategy Paradox 89%
The strategies that win big also lose big. The escape: a portfolio of options.
by Michael E. Raynor 2007
3.89
300 ratings
Everyday Chaos
by David Weinberger • 2019
A medical AI diagnoses illness but can't explain how. The age of demanding explanations is over.
3.78
202
Everyday Chaos Summary
Everyday Chaos 89%
A medical AI diagnoses illness but can't explain how. The age of demanding explanations is over.
by David Weinberger 2019
3.78
202 ratings
An Economist Walks into a Brothel
by Allison Schrager • 2019
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
3.56
2k+
An Economist Walks into a Brothel Summary
An Economist Walks into a Brothel 89%
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
by Allison Schrager 2019
3.56
2k+ ratings
How to Measure Anything
by Douglas W. Hubbard • 1985
That thing you call immeasurable? Redefine measurement; the toolkit is simpler than anyone admits.
3.90
4k+
How to Measure Anything Summary
How to Measure Anything 89%
That thing you call immeasurable? Redefine measurement; the toolkit is simpler than anyone admits.
by Douglas W. Hubbard 1985
3.90
4k+ ratings
Streetlights and Shadows
by Gary Klein • 2009
Complex situations demand a different decision playbook. One built on recognition, not comparison.
4.28
321
Streetlights and Shadows Summary
Streetlights and Shadows 89%
Complex situations demand a different decision playbook. One built on recognition, not comparison.
by Gary Klein 2009
4.28
321 ratings
Against the Gods
by Peter L. Bernstein • 1996
The modern world began when humans stopped blaming the gods and started calculating the odds.
3.95
15k+
Against the Gods Summary
Against the Gods 88%
The modern world began when humans stopped blaming the gods and started calculating the odds.
by Peter L. Bernstein 1996
3.95
15k+ ratings
Risk Intelligence
by Dylan Evans • 2012
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
3.71
256
Risk Intelligence Summary
Risk Intelligence 88%
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
by Dylan Evans 2012
3.71
256 ratings
Chaos Kings
by Scott Patterson • 2023
They lose money every day on purpose, because one market crash will repay everything.
3.75
1k+
Chaos Kings Summary
Chaos Kings 88%
They lose money every day on purpose, because one market crash will repay everything.
by Scott Patterson 2023
3.75
1k+ ratings
Skin in the Game
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2018
Your opinion only counts if you have something to lose. Without that, expertise is theater.
3.91
32k+
Skin in the Game Summary
Skin in the Game 88%
Your opinion only counts if you have something to lose. Without that, expertise is theater.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2018
3.91
32k+ ratings
An Introduction to Decision Theory
by Martin Peterson • 2009
Probability is a philosophical puzzle; how you define it changes what counts as rational.
3.77
131
An Introduction to Decision Theory Summary
An Introduction to Decision Theory 88%
Probability is a philosophical puzzle; how you define it changes what counts as rational.
by Martin Peterson 2009
3.77
131 ratings
Keynes
by Robert Skidelsky • 2009
The 2008 crash was an indictment of an economics that abandoned Keynes. Markets don't self-correct.
3.78
1k+
Keynes Summary
Keynes 88%
The 2008 crash was an indictment of an economics that abandoned Keynes. Markets don't self-correct.
by Robert Skidelsky 2009
3.78
1k+ ratings
Antifragile
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2012
Predicting catastrophe is impossible. Designing a life that profits from chaos is not.
4.10
58k+
Antifragile Summary
Antifragile 88%
Predicting catastrophe is impossible. Designing a life that profits from chaos is not.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2012
4.10
58k+ ratings
The Alchemy of Finance
by George Soros • 1987
Markets are never in equilibrium. Perception and reality interact, driving booms and busts.
3.75
5k+
The Alchemy of Finance Summary
The Alchemy of Finance 88%
Markets are never in equilibrium. Perception and reality interact, driving booms and busts.
by George Soros 1987
3.75
5k+ ratings
Ergodicity
by Luca Dellanna • 2020
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
4.05
314
Ergodicity Summary
Ergodicity 88%
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
by Luca Dellanna 2020
4.05
314 ratings
Fooled by Randomness
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2001
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
4.08
72k+
Fooled by Randomness Summary
Fooled by Randomness 88%
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2001
4.08
72k+ ratings
The Uncertainty Solution
by John M. Jennings • 2023
Ditch prediction. Invest with a simple, psychology-backed plan for an unknowable future.
4.47
241
The Uncertainty Solution Summary
The Uncertainty Solution 88%
Ditch prediction. Invest with a simple, psychology-backed plan for an unknowable future.
by John M. Jennings 2023
4.47
241 ratings
Chancing It
by Robert Matthews • 2017
How a formula from 17th-century gambling can tell you what any decision is worth.
3.81
227
Chancing It Summary
Chancing It 88%
How a formula from 17th-century gambling can tell you what any decision is worth.
by Robert Matthews 2017
3.81
227 ratings
Art of the Long View, The
by Peter Schwartz • 1991
Predicting the future is a fool's game. The smart money rehearses it instead.
3.80
924
Art of the Long View, The Summary
Art of the Long View, The 88%
Predicting the future is a fool's game. The smart money rehearses it instead.
by Peter Schwartz 1991
3.80
924 ratings
The Drunkard's Walk
by Leonard Mlodinow • 2008
Success isn't as earned as you think. Probability decides more outcomes than talent ever does.
3.95
25k+
The Drunkard's Walk Summary
The Drunkard's Walk 88%
Success isn't as earned as you think. Probability decides more outcomes than talent ever does.
by Leonard Mlodinow 2008
3.95
25k+ ratings
On the Edge
by Nate Silver • 2024
One tribe calculates risk; one avoids it. This divide now shapes American life more than politics.
3.66
6k+
On the Edge Summary
On the Edge 88%
One tribe calculates risk; one avoids it. This divide now shapes American life more than politics.
by Nate Silver 2024
3.66
6k+ ratings
The Future of Everything
by David Orrell • 2006
Weather, markets, pandemics: the science of why forecasts fail, and what to build instead.
3.67
117
The Future of Everything Summary
The Future of Everything 88%
Weather, markets, pandemics: the science of why forecasts fail, and what to build instead.
by David Orrell 2006
3.67
117 ratings
How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk
by Douglas W. Hubbard • 2016
Cybersecurity swears its risks defy measurement. A quantitative toolkit that says otherwise.
4.06
381
How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk Summary
How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk 88%
Cybersecurity swears its risks defy measurement. A quantitative toolkit that says otherwise.
by Douglas W. Hubbard 2016
4.06
381 ratings
Risk Savvy
by Gerd Gigerenzer • 2013
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
4.01
2k+
Risk Savvy Summary
Risk Savvy 88%
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
by Gerd Gigerenzer 2013
4.01
2k+ ratings
How to Expect the Unexpected
by Kit Yates • 2023
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
3.69
188
How to Expect the Unexpected Summary
How to Expect the Unexpected 88%
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
by Kit Yates 2023
3.69
188 ratings
The Only Game in Town
by Mohamed El-Erian • 2016
Central banks saved the economy, then overreached. The road ahead now forks toward opposing futures.
3.56
1k+
The Only Game in Town Summary
The Only Game in Town 88%
Central banks saved the economy, then overreached. The road ahead now forks toward opposing futures.
by Mohamed El-Erian 2016
3.56
1k+ ratings
Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning
by Henry Mintzberg • 1993
Strategic planning is an expensive illusion: why prediction fails and where real strategy emerges.
3.80
234
Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning Summary
Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning 88%
Strategic planning is an expensive illusion: why prediction fails and where real strategy emerges.
by Henry Mintzberg 1993
3.80
234 ratings
Can "It" Happen Again?
by Hyman P. Minsky • 1982
Stability plants the seeds of crisis: why capitalism's calmest moments are its most dangerous.
4.31
52
Can "It" Happen Again? Summary
Can "It" Happen Again? 88%
Stability plants the seeds of crisis: why capitalism's calmest moments are its most dangerous.
by Hyman P. Minsky 1982
4.31
52 ratings
A Demon of Our Own Design
by Richard Bookstaber • 2007
Why safer economies create more volatile markets: a hidden design flaw that turns progress to peril.
3.92
1k+
A Demon of Our Own Design Summary
A Demon of Our Own Design 88%
Why safer economies create more volatile markets: a hidden design flaw that turns progress to peril.
by Richard Bookstaber 2007
3.92
1k+ ratings
The End of Alchemy
by Mervyn A. King • 2016
Your bank lends your deposit out for decades. You can demand it back this afternoon.
4.07
2k+
The End of Alchemy Summary
The End of Alchemy 88%
Your bank lends your deposit out for decades. You can demand it back this afternoon.
by Mervyn A. King 2016
4.07
2k+ ratings
Farsighted
by Steven Johnson • 2018
Why our biggest choices flunk the pro/con list, and what works: mapping, rehearsal, fiction.
3.55
2k+
Farsighted Summary
Farsighted 88%
Why our biggest choices flunk the pro/con list, and what works: mapping, rehearsal, fiction.
by Steven Johnson 2018
3.55
2k+ ratings
The Laws of Trading
by Agustin Lebron • 2019
The rules that keep traders alive are the same rules that govern every decision you make.
4.03
426
The Laws of Trading Summary
The Laws of Trading 88%
The rules that keep traders alive are the same rules that govern every decision you make.
by Agustin Lebron 2019
4.03
426 ratings
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market
by John Allen Paulos • 2003
The market's worst crashes aren't anomalies: they're built into the math most investors ignore.
3.46
823
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market Summary
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market 88%
The market's worst crashes aren't anomalies: they're built into the math most investors ignore.
by John Allen Paulos 2003
3.46
823 ratings
Nonsense
by Jamie Holmes • 2015
Certainty is a trap. What not knowing does for creativity, smarter choices, and avoiding disaster.
3.61
1k+
Nonsense Summary
Nonsense 88%
Certainty is a trap. What not knowing does for creativity, smarter choices, and avoiding disaster.
by Jamie Holmes 2015
3.61
1k+ ratings
Investing
by Robert G. Hagstrom • 2000
Physics, biology, and psychology, woven together, give an investor an edge no financial model can.
4.13
1k+
Investing Summary
Investing 88%
Physics, biology, and psychology, woven together, give an investor an edge no financial model can.
by Robert G. Hagstrom 2000
4.13
1k+ ratings
The Yellow Pad
by Robert E. Rubin • 2023
A yellow pad and honest odds: the method that steered Goldman Sachs and the White House.
3.70
268
The Yellow Pad Summary
The Yellow Pad 88%
A yellow pad and honest odds: the method that steered Goldman Sachs and the White House.
by Robert E. Rubin 2023
3.70
268 ratings
Fluke
by Brian Klaas • 2024
Your brain evolved to hide chance from you. Chaos science reveals what you are missing.
4.06
4k+
Fluke Summary
Fluke 88%
Your brain evolved to hide chance from you. Chaos science reveals what you are missing.
by Brian Klaas 2024
4.06
4k+ ratings
How to Predict Everything
by William Poundstone • 2019
The math that gives humanity 760 more years also explains why aliens never call.
3.19
68
How to Predict Everything Summary
How to Predict Everything 88%
The math that gives humanity 760 more years also explains why aliens never call.
by William Poundstone 2019
3.19
68 ratings
How to Decide
by Annie Duke • 2020
Separating luck from skill: the poker champion's toolkit for decisions you won't regret.
3.96
3k+
How to Decide Summary
How to Decide 87%
Separating luck from skill: the poker champion's toolkit for decisions you won't regret.
by Annie Duke 2020
3.96
3k+ ratings
Think Twice
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2009
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
3.93
1k+
Think Twice Summary
Think Twice 87%
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2009
3.93
1k+ ratings
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