9 Lessons in Brexit

1. Brexit is a complex regime change with far-reaching consequences

Brexit is genuinely a major regime change, with massive political, legal, economic and social consequences.

Fundamental shift. Leaving the EU represents a seismic change in the UK's governance and international relations. It's not simply a matter of withdrawing from a trade agreement, but a complete overhaul of the country's legal, economic, and social frameworks that have been intertwined with the EU for decades.

Widespread impact. The consequences of Brexit touch every aspect of British life:

• Political: Redefining the UK's role in global politics and its relationship with Europe
• Legal: Disentangling UK law from EU regulations and establishing new legal frameworks
• Economic: Restructuring trade relationships and adapting to new economic realities
• Social: Addressing issues of identity, freedom of movement, and cultural ties with Europe

Long-term process. The complexity of Brexit means that its full effects will unfold over many years, requiring ongoing negotiations, adjustments, and adaptation across all sectors of society.

2. The EU's solidarity and negotiating prowess outmaneuvered the UK

"Brussels" is nothing if not really expert at using the tensions in domestic national politics to force the moves it most wants you to make.

EU's strategic advantage. The European Union demonstrated superior negotiating skills throughout the Brexit process, leveraging its unified front and deep understanding of the UK's internal political divisions.

UK's missteps:

• Prematurely triggering Article 50, limiting negotiation time
• Setting unrealistic expectations about the ease of reaching a deal
• Underestimating the EU's resolve to protect its interests

Consequences of poor strategy:

• Forced to accept less favorable terms
• Limited leverage in negotiations
• Struggled to present a coherent negotiating position due to internal disagreements

3. Sovereignty claims mask the reality of diminished global influence

In "taking back control" over our laws and leaving the adjudication and enforcement machinery of what used to be our "home" market, we are privileging notional autonomy to make our own laws over real power to set the rules by which in practice we shall be governed.

Illusion of control. The promise of regaining sovereignty through Brexit overlooks the realities of global interdependence and the UK's reduced influence outside the EU.

Trade-offs:

• Leaving EU decision-making bodies
• Losing ability to shape EU regulations that will still affect UK businesses
• Diminished voice in global affairs

Practical consequences:

• Need to comply with EU standards to maintain market access
• Reduced leverage in international negotiations
• Potential for diverging regulations to create barriers for UK businesses

4. The services sector faces significant challenges post-Brexit

UK services exports to the EU in the year of the referendum were running at £90 billion a year. That's as much as we export to our next eight export markets put together.

Economic impact. The UK's crucial services sector, which dominates the economy, stands to lose significantly from Brexit due to reduced access to EU markets.

Key challenges:

• Loss of passporting rights for financial services
• Barriers to cross-border trade in professional services
• Reduced mobility for service providers

Potential consequences:

• Relocation of businesses to maintain EU market access
• Decline in UK's competitive advantage in key service industries
• Negative impact on balance of trade and public finances

5. Beware of overly optimistic "plus" deals in negotiations

The "pluses" merely signify that all deficiencies in the named deal will miraculously disappear when we Brits come to negotiate our own version of it.

Unrealistic expectations. The proliferation of "plus" deals (e.g., Norway+, Canada+++) in Brexit discussions often represents wishful thinking rather than achievable outcomes.

Problems with "plus" deals:

• Ignore the complexities of existing agreements
• Assume the EU will offer better terms to the UK than to other countries
• Fail to address fundamental issues like the Irish border

Reality check:

• EU unlikely to compromise core principles for UK benefit
• Any deal will involve trade-offs and compromises
• Need for realistic assessment of UK's negotiating position

6. Transparency is crucial in complex negotiations

You cannot, and should not want to, conduct such a huge negotiation as untransparently as the UK has. And in the end, it does you no good to try.

Open communication. The UK government's secretive approach to Brexit negotiations has been counterproductive, eroding public trust and hampering informed debate.

Benefits of transparency:

• Builds public understanding and support
• Allows for scrutiny and input from stakeholders
• Helps manage expectations and prepare for outcomes

EU's effective approach:

• Published position papers and graphic presentations
• Issued "no deal" notices to the private sector
• Shaped public narrative through clear communication

7. Honesty about Brexit's trade-offs is essential for democracy

Real honesty with the public is the best – the only – policy if we are to get to the other side of Brexit with a healthy democracy, a reasonably unified country and a strong economy.

Truth in politics. Addressing the complexities and challenges of Brexit honestly is crucial for maintaining democratic legitimacy and national unity.

Consequences of dishonesty:

• Public disillusionment and distrust in political institutions
• Unrealistic expectations leading to disappointment and anger
• Difficulty in building consensus for necessary compromises

Path forward:

• Acknowledge the trade-offs inherent in any Brexit outcome
• Provide clear, factual information about potential impacts
• Foster open debate about the country's future direction

8. The Brexit process will be lengthy and require difficult compromises

Brexit is a process not an event. And the EU, while strategically myopic, is formidably good at process against negotiating opponents.

Long-term perspective. Brexit is not a single event but a prolonged process that will require ongoing negotiations and adjustments over many years.

Key challenges:

• Disentangling decades of integrated laws and regulations
• Negotiating new trade relationships with the EU and other countries
• Adapting domestic policies and institutions to post-Brexit realities

Necessary approach:

• Patience and persistence in negotiations
• Willingness to make difficult compromises
• Continuous adaptation to changing circumstances

9. The UK must redefine its global role and trade relationships

We cannot go on as we have been: evading and obfuscating choices – indeed frequently denying, against all evidence, that there are unavoidable choices.

Strategic realignment. Post-Brexit, the UK needs to honestly assess its position in the world and make clear choices about its future relationships and priorities.

Key areas for redefinition:

• Trade policy: Balancing EU access with global ambitions
• Foreign policy: Determining alliances and areas of influence
• Economic strategy: Identifying and supporting key industries for growth

Challenges and opportunities:

• Potential for new trade deals and partnerships
• Need to rebuild international influence outside the EU framework
• Balancing domestic interests with global engagement

Last updated: November 18, 2024