The Return of Marco Polo's World

1. The End of Western Dominance: Eurasia's Geopolitical Resurgence

As Europe disappears, Eurasia coheres.

The geopolitical landscape is shifting. The post-Cold War era of Western dominance is giving way to a more complex, multipolar world centered on the Eurasian supercontinent. This transformation is driven by several factors:

• The relative decline of European and American power
• The rise of China, Russia, and other regional powers
• Increasing economic and cultural interconnectedness across Eurasia
• The erosion of traditional alliances and international institutions

The result is a more fluid, chaotic, and potentially dangerous world order, where old assumptions about global stability and Western leadership no longer hold true. As power shifts eastward, policymakers must adapt to a new geopolitical reality that demands fresh strategies and approaches to international relations.

2. The Collapse of Empires and the Rise of Chaos

Empire clearly had its evils, but one cannot deny its historical function—to provide stability and order to vast tracts of land occupied by different peoples.

The fall of empires has left a vacuum. The collapse of traditional imperial structures – from the Ottoman and Habsburg empires to the Soviet Union – has unleashed forces of chaos and instability across much of Eurasia and Africa. This process has been exacerbated by:

• The artificial borders left behind by colonial powers
• The failure of many post-colonial states to develop strong institutions
• The rise of ethnic and sectarian conflicts
• The spread of transnational terrorist and criminal networks

The result is a world marked by failed states, civil wars, and ungoverned spaces that pose significant challenges to international security. While the era of formal empires is over, the need for some form of regional order and stability remains acute.

3. China's Growing Influence and the New Silk Road

China is branding these infrastructure projects "One Belt, One Road"—in effect, a new Silk Road.

China is reshaping Eurasia. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is seeking to create a vast network of economic and infrastructure connections across Eurasia and beyond. This ambitious project has several key components:

• Massive investments in transportation infrastructure (roads, railways, ports)
• Energy pipelines and telecommunications networks
• New financial institutions and trade agreements
• Cultural and educational exchanges

The BRI represents a bold attempt by China to reshape the geopolitical and economic landscape of Eurasia, potentially shifting the center of global power away from the West. While offering opportunities for development, it also raises concerns about Chinese influence and the potential for debt-trap diplomacy.

4. Russia's Resurgence and the Intermarium Challenge

Russia will be contained by China much more than by the United States.

Russia seeks to reclaim its sphere of influence. Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has pursued an aggressive foreign policy aimed at reasserting its dominance in its near abroad and challenging Western influence. Key aspects of this strategy include:

• Military interventions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria
• The use of energy resources as a geopolitical weapon
• Information warfare and political interference in Western democracies
• Efforts to divide NATO and the European Union

Russia's actions have revived concerns about security in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in the "Intermarium" region between the Baltic and Black Seas. This has led to renewed focus on the need for a coherent Western strategy to counter Russian influence and protect vulnerable states.

5. The Weakening of the European Union and NATO

Rather than a unified and coherent superstate, Europe will increasingly be a less than coherent confection of states and regions, as it dissolves internally—and also externally into the fluid geography of Eurasia, the Levant, and North Africa.

European unity is under strain. The European Union and NATO, long pillars of Western power and stability, are facing unprecedented challenges that threaten their cohesion and effectiveness:

• Rising populism and nationalism within member states
• Economic disparities and the ongoing fallout from the Eurozone crisis
• Disagreements over migration policy and burden-sharing
• Diverging security interests and threat perceptions
• Brexit and the potential for further disintegration

As Europe struggles with these internal divisions, its ability to act as a unified geopolitical actor on the world stage is diminished. This weakening of European institutions has significant implications for global power dynamics and the future of the liberal international order.

6. The Middle East: A Cauldron of Instability and Conflict

The Middle East adjoins Central-Eastern Europe, its anarchy is something that Putin also cannot now ignore.

The Middle East remains volatile. Despite (or perhaps because of) decades of Western intervention, the region continues to be a source of instability and conflict with global ramifications:

• The ongoing civil war in Syria and its regional spillover effects
• The rise and fall of ISIS and the persistent threat of Islamist extremism
• Sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shia powers, particularly Saudi Arabia and Iran
• The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its impact on regional dynamics
• The fragility of states like Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen

These ongoing crises have far-reaching consequences, from refugee flows to Europe to the disruption of global energy markets. They also provide opportunities for external powers like Russia and China to expand their influence in the region at the expense of traditional Western allies.

7. America's Declining Global Influence and the Need for Restraint

We are entering an age of what I call comparative anarchy, that is, a much higher level of anarchy compared to that of the Cold War and Post Cold War periods.

American power is waning. The United States, while still the world's preeminent military and economic power, faces increasing constraints on its ability to shape global events:

• The rise of peer competitors, particularly China
• War fatigue and domestic political polarization
• Economic challenges and the need to focus on internal renewal
• The erosion of traditional alliances and loss of moral authority

In response to these challenges, some argue for a more restrained American foreign policy focused on core national interests rather than global primacy. This approach, often called "offshore balancing," would involve:

• Reducing America's military footprint in certain regions
• Relying more on regional allies to maintain balance of power
• Avoiding costly nation-building and regime change efforts
• Focusing on great power competition rather than counterinsurgency

8. The Return of Great Power Politics and Offensive Realism

It is my hypothesis that the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural.

Realism is resurgent. The post-Cold War era of liberal internationalism is giving way to a return of great power politics and realist approaches to international relations:

• The primacy of national interests over universal values
• The importance of military power and balance-of-power dynamics
• Skepticism towards international institutions and norms
• The persistence of conflict and competition in an anarchic world

This shift is exemplified by the work of scholars like John Mearsheimer, who argue that states are inherently competitive and seek to maximize their power relative to potential rivals. This "offensive realism" suggests that conflict between rising and established powers is likely, if not inevitable.

9. The Limitations of Liberal Internationalism and Democracy Promotion

The Western belief that parliamentary democracy and free markets are suitable for everyone will bring the West into conflict with civilizations—notably, Islam and the Chinese—that think differently.

Democratic evangelism has failed. The post-Cold War efforts to spread liberal democracy and free markets globally have encountered significant obstacles and unintended consequences:

• The resilience of authoritarian regimes, particularly in China and Russia
• The chaos resulting from regime change in Iraq, Libya, and elsewhere
• The rise of illiberal democracies and populist movements
• Cultural resistance to Western values in many parts of the world

These setbacks have led to a reassessment of the viability and desirability of democracy promotion as a cornerstone of Western foreign policy. Critics argue for a more pragmatic approach that recognizes the diversity of political systems and focuses on stability and order rather than ideological transformation.

10. The Israel Lobby and Its Impact on U.S. Foreign Policy

The fact that Israel is a democracy is important, but it is not sufficient to justify the terms of the special relationship. We should treat Israel as a normal country, like we treat Britain or Japan.

The U.S.-Israel relationship is controversial. The influence of pro-Israel groups on American foreign policy has been the subject of intense debate, particularly in relation to U.S. actions in the Middle East:

• Arguments that the "Israel lobby" pushes U.S. policy in directions contrary to broader national interests
• Concerns about the unconditional nature of U.S. support for Israel
• Debates over the impact of this relationship on America's standing in the Arab and Muslim world
• Questions about the role of domestic politics in shaping foreign policy

While supporters argue that the U.S.-Israel alliance is based on shared values and strategic interests, critics contend that it distorts American policy and contributes to regional instability. This debate reflects broader questions about the role of interest groups and identity politics in shaping foreign policy.

11. The Future of Conflict: Technology, Urbanization, and Resource Scarcity

The more urbanized, the more educated, and even the more enlightened the world becomes, counterintuitively, the more politically unstable it becomes, too.

New challenges are emerging. The nature of conflict and security is evolving in response to technological, demographic, and environmental changes:

• The rise of cyber warfare and information operations
• The proliferation of advanced weapons technologies to non-state actors
• Increasing urbanization and the challenges of urban warfare
• Climate change and competition for scarce resources
• Demographic pressures and mass migration

These trends are creating new vulnerabilities and altering traditional power dynamics. Future conflicts may be less about territorial control and more about managing complex, interconnected systems in an increasingly crowded and resource-constrained world.

Last updated: November 20, 2024