Key Takeaways
1. Economics is fundamentally about sex and progeny.
Sex (or more Darwinistically speaking, progeny) is what gets men out of bed in the morning, off to school, into rush hour, off to the office, off to the factory, off to night school, off to war, or off to the lab to make money so that they might someday attract girls.
Incentives drive production. The vast economic activity we see around us, from buildings to infrastructure, is driven by human labor. This labor isn't random; it's motivated. The primary motivator, according to the author, is sex, or more accurately, the desire to attract a mate and produce offspring. This drive compels men to work, innovate, and accumulate resources.
Evolutionary roles. Nature has assigned specific roles to men and women to ensure the survival and thriving of the human race. Men are given the physical strength, aggression, and mass to provide for and protect their women and children. Women have the ability to birth children and the breasts to feed them.
Mismatched sex drives. Men have sex drives estimated to be nine times that of women, while women do not. This lopsidedness prevents everybody from breeding kids they can’t afford because if women had the same sex drives as men the human race would out-breed its food supply in a week.
2. Men are incentivized to build society for sex.
If there was no sex, if there were no women, if there was no female youth and beauty, men would still be living in caves, only mustering their resources to perhaps create beer and poker to bide the time.
The original economic transaction. The author argues that the foundation of the economy is the exchange of sex for resources. Men build and produce, and women provide sex and the continuation of the genetic line. This transaction, though perhaps unacknowledged, is the driving force behind much of human endeavor.
Men as dominant producers. Men are genetically compelled to be the primary engine of economic growth, industry, and innovation. This isn't to diminish the contributions of women, but to highlight the biological imperative that drives men to create and accumulate.
The price of sex. For every ounce of production, wealth, and riches men have, there is an equal and opposite price men must pay. For every ear of corn grown, there was an hour of time tilling the fields. For every car welded, a bead of sweat from the welder. Down to every penny of GDP there is a specific caloric expenditure of labor.
3. Feminism, tech, and welfare have changed the game.
Feminism, technology, capitalism, and government policy have upended traditional male and female roles, completely obsoleting them in some cases.
Shifting gender roles. Traditional gender roles have been significantly altered by feminism, technology, capitalism, and government policy. Technology and capitalism have reduced the need for physical strength in labor, opening up the market to women. Feminism has encouraged these advancements, making it legally and socially acceptable for women to work and own property.
The welfare state. Government policy, particularly in the first world, has replaced men as the ultimate provider for women and children with the welfare state. This has further eroded traditional gender roles and created new dynamics in relationships.
Biological programming persists. Despite these changes, men are still genetically compelled to be the primary engine of economic growth, industry, and innovation. The fundamental drive for sex and progeny remains a powerful force.
4. The odds of a happy marriage are statistically low.
When you pursue a woman, you get a .00076283% CHANCE of success.
Defining success. The author defines "success" as a traditional marriage where both spouses are happily married. This could be in the form of a traditional marriage, cohabitation, or any form of committed relationship. But to be “successful” according to this study you must be committed to a relationship and happy in it.
Statistical realities. The author presents a sobering statistical analysis of the chances of achieving a happy marriage. The model considers factors such as the percentage of marriageable women, the percentage of women willing to marry an average man, and the percentage chance that the marriage will be a happy one.
The role of action. While the statistics are dire, they are not futile in that men do not throw themselves at the mercy of these statistics, casting fate to the wind, sitting at home with their thumbs up their asses. Men have agency. They have control. They can take action to improve their chances.
5. Explicit, opportunity, and intangible costs are high.
“Costs” in this study will be defined as ALL resources men use in the pursuit of women.
Explicit costs. These are the actual financial expenses men incur in their pursuit of women, including dates, dinners, dating services, wedding rings, weddings, and divorce settlements. The author estimates that the average man can expect to pay $260,785 in explicit cash expenses.
Opportunity costs. These are the opportunities men forgo by investing time and money in the pursuit of women. The author calculates that if the $260,000 spent chasing women were invested in the S&P 500, it could grow to $9.6 million over a lifetime.
Intangible costs. These are the undefinable costs men pay in their pursuit of women, including mental pain, anguish, stress, frustration, heartache, and confusion. These costs are often downplayed but can have a significant impact on a man's well-being.
6. The ROI of pursuing women is near zero.
Thus the real ROI of the pursuit of women is: 0/∞= 0%.
The economic perspective. From an economic perspective, the author argues that the ROI of pursuing women is near zero. The chances of achieving a happy marriage are low, while the costs are high, making it a poor investment of time, money, and energy.
The gamble of love. The author likens the pursuit of women to a gamble, with the odds of success being similar to winning the lottery. He advises men to play this lottery wisely, ensuring they don't destroy their lives in the process.
Alternative measures of ROI. The author revisits some of the other numbers we calculated along the way so that you might take the rose-colored glasses off your face and see the real world for what it is. A metaphorical slap across the face that wakes you up to the realities about pursuing modern day women.
7. A good woman is priceless, but rare.
And though this study may sound to have a pessimistic tone towards women, the numbers we just went through proves just how valuable a good woman is in today’s world.
The value of a good woman. Despite the pessimistic tone, the author acknowledges that good women do exist and are incredibly valuable. He argues that if you're lucky enough to find one, you should appreciate her as she's technically infinitely-valuable.
The lottery ticket. The true economic nature of the pursuit of women is more of a gamble than it is an investment. A gamble whose statistics of which are not too unlike winning the lottery.
Playing the lottery wisely. It's that if you're going to pursue women you do so intelligently and with the full knowledge it is likely you still won't succeed. And in playing this lottery wisely you will ensure you don't pay the horrific costs most men do, while still standing the outside chance you might find one of those “infinitely-valuable” women.
8. Social media and feminism worsen the ROI.
It's the fact you are competing against this digital synthetic superman who will likely keep women off the market well past the age of 35, to the point they'll be desperately freezing their eggs.
The cult of feminism. Feminism has gone from a movement about equality to that of a socialist cult, the two main pillars of which are victimhood politics and having women replace men with themselves as their sole point and purpose in life.
Social media's impact. Social media has created a substitute good for real-world relationships, offering women a synthetic superman who can satiate their every want and desire without the need for commitment.
The synthetic superman. If a girl wants attention, she doesn't have to dress up, look cute, or go out in public. She just posts “I'm feeling so ugly today” on Instagram and a flood of “OHHHH NOO, YOU'RE SO BEAAUUUTIFUL!!!!” messages will come from the THOUSANDS of simps following her.
9. Acknowledge reality and align expectations.
You need to realize that just because a girl may live 500 miles away, doesn't mean she isn't dateable or marriage material.
The importance of realism. It is absolutely necessary for the sake of your own mental health that you acknowledge and realize the statistical reality of the women before you.
The new normal. Men need to accept this reality. Men need to adapt to this new normal. Not hope and dream that someday they will win the “Quality Woman Lottery.” Because if they don't, they will doom themselves to a life of misery.
You are not insane. What you are experiencing today is not normal, is not acceptable, and that voice you hear in the back of your head saying “something's wrong” is 100% right.
10. Leave a line in the water and pursue excellence.
Though women were the fuel that historically prompted men to achieve their best, men have to pursue excellence whether there is a muse invigorating them to do so or not
Casting a wide net. If you are a man who is serious about marriage (or finding a quality girl), you can simply declare your intentions online, set a fine, but wide net, and the internet will do the work for you.
Pursue excellence. Though women were the fuel that historically prompted men to achieve their best, men have to pursue excellence whether there is a muse invigorating them to do so or not.
The legacy of excellence. It's that he didn't squander his life and he made it count. His life was not the typical one that was no materially different than the tens of billions of men who died before him.
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FAQ
1. What is "The Book of Numbers: Analyzing the ROI on the Pursuit of Women" by Aaron Clarey about?
- Economic Analysis of Dating: The book applies financial concepts, specifically ROI (Return on Investment), to the pursuit of women, dating, and marriage from a male perspective.
- Statistical Approach: Clarey uses statistics, actuarial models, and real-world data to estimate the chances of men achieving a happy marriage and the costs involved.
- Focus on Modern Realities: The book examines how societal changes, feminism, technology, and government policies have altered the traditional dynamics between men and women.
- Practical Guidance: It aims to help men make informed decisions about investing their time, money, and energy in relationships, emphasizing the importance of aligning expectations with reality.
2. Why should someone read "The Book of Numbers" by Aaron Clarey?
- Eye-Opening Statistics: The book provides data-driven insights into the modern dating landscape, challenging common assumptions about relationships and marriage.
- Cost-Benefit Perspective: It offers a unique economic framework for evaluating the pursuit of women, which is rarely discussed in mainstream relationship advice.
- Actionable Advice: Readers receive practical strategies for improving their odds or choosing alternative paths, such as focusing on personal excellence.
- Reality Check: Clarey’s blunt, no-nonsense tone helps men avoid delusion and disappointment by understanding the true risks and rewards of modern relationships.
3. What are the key takeaways from "The Book of Numbers" by Aaron Clarey?
- Extremely Low ROI: The statistical chance of an average man achieving a happy marriage is minuscule, especially when factoring in modern societal trends.
- High Costs Involved: The pursuit of women can cost men hundreds of thousands of dollars, years of time, and significant emotional energy.
- Action Matters: While the odds are low, men can improve their chances through self-improvement, effort, and strategic dating, but the investment is substantial.
- Pursue Excellence: Focusing on personal development and excellence not only enriches a man’s life but ironically increases his attractiveness and chances with women.
4. How does Aaron Clarey define and calculate ROI (Return on Investment) in the context of pursuing women?
- ROI Formula Applied: Clarey adapts the financial ROI formula—benefits divided by costs—to the pursuit of women, where "benefits" are the chances of a happy marriage and "costs" include time, money, and emotional investment.
- Success Defined: "Success" is defined as being happily married, not just dating or having sex.
- Comprehensive Costs: Costs are broken down into explicit (financial), opportunity (what else could have been done with those resources), and intangible (emotional/psychological) categories.
- Statistical Modeling: The model multiplies the percent of marriageable women, the percent willing to marry an average man, and the percent chance of a happy marriage to estimate the overall ROI.
5. What are the main assumptions and limitations in Aaron Clarey’s analysis in "The Book of Numbers"?
- Ballpark Estimates: The study is a first attempt and uses best-effort, ballpark figures rather than precise actuarial data.
- Male Perspective: The analysis is explicitly from the perspective of the average man ("Average Joe 5") and does not account for individual chemistry or personality.
- Data Limitations: Many statistics are extrapolated or inferred due to lack of perfect data, and some variables (like happiness) are difficult to quantify.
- Focused Demographic: The book primarily analyzes women aged 18-35 and men under 45, focusing on traditional marriage as the goal.
6. What methods does "The Book of Numbers" use to estimate the percentage of marriageable women?
- Deal Breaker Method: Evaluates the percentage of women without major deal breakers (e.g., obesity, single motherhood, mental illness, financial irresponsibility, etc.), resulting in about 1.25%.
- Online Dating Profile Survey: Reviews 900 online dating profiles across three states to estimate the percentage of women without obvious deal breakers, yielding 5.4%.
- Dates Per Marriage Method: Calculates how many women men date before marrying, suggesting only 1.5% are marriageable.
- Final Estimate: The average of these methods gives approximately 2.72% of women as marriageable.
7. How does Aaron Clarey determine the likelihood that a marriageable woman will marry an "Average Joe 5"?
- Spinster Ratio: Removes women who have no interest in marrying by age 35 (about 30%).
- Standards for Men: Considers women’s requirements for looks, income, and status, finding only 2.93% of women are willing to date an average man.
- Dates Per Marriage for Women: Women marry about 9.6% of the men they date, further reducing the odds.
- Final Probability: The combined effect results in only 0.197% of women likely to marry an average man.
8. What does "The Book of Numbers" reveal about the chances of achieving a happy marriage for the average man?
- Multiplicative Odds: The chance of being happily married is the product of the percent of marriageable women, the percent willing to marry an average man, and the percent chance of a happy marriage.
- Final Statistic: The resulting chance is approximately 0.00076% per event (asking out a random woman).
- Real-World Translation: For the average man, this translates to about 4.5 in 1,000 men achieving a happy marriage, or 1 in 6 for highly proactive "serial daters."
- Action Increases Odds: Taking more action (asking out more women, self-improvement) can improve these odds, but the baseline is extremely low.
9. What are the explicit, opportunity, and intangible costs of pursuing women according to "The Book of Numbers"?
- Explicit Costs: Includes direct expenses like dating, weddings, divorce, and lifestyle inflation, totaling around $260,000 over a lifetime.
- Opportunity Costs: If the same resources were invested in the S&P 500, a man could have nearly $9.7 million by retirement age.
- Intangible Costs: Emotional pain, stress, heartbreak, and psychological trauma are common and often underestimated.
- Total Cost: Clarey argues the true cost is "total"—essentially a man’s entire life, given the time, money, and energy invested.
10. What are the main societal and technological trends that "The Book of Numbers" claims are lowering the ROI of pursuing women?
- Feminism and Careerism: Modern feminism encourages women to prioritize careers, politics, and self-fulfillment over relationships, making traditional marriage less likely.
- Social Media and Online Dating: The internet creates an illusion of abundance, raises standards, and reduces real-world effort and investment in relationships.
- Government and Welfare: Economic independence and welfare reduce women’s dependency on men, further shifting relationship dynamics.
- Substitute Goods: Both men and women increasingly fulfill their needs through digital means (porn, social media, online attention), reducing the incentive for real relationships.
11. What strategies and advice does Aaron Clarey offer men in "The Book of Numbers" for navigating the modern dating landscape?
- Accept Harsh Realities: Recognize that the odds are stacked against finding a quality, happy marriage, and you are not insane for noticing this.
- Align Expectations: Don’t waste time on delusions; understand the statistical reality and adjust your goals accordingly.
- Leave a Line in the Water: Use technology to cast a wide net, but be strategic and efficient in screening for quality women.
- Pursue Excellence: Focus on self-improvement in physique, profession, adventure, comradery, passion, intellect, and morality—this not only enriches your life but paradoxically increases your attractiveness to women.
12. What are the best quotes from "The Book of Numbers" by Aaron Clarey and what do they mean?
- "You effectively stand NO CHANCE at being happy in your pursuit of women. AND That pursuit will cost you EVERYTHING in life." — Emphasizes the book’s central thesis about the low ROI and high cost of modern relationships.
- "Chase excellence, not women." — Suggests that focusing on personal development is both more rewarding and more likely to attract women.
- "Numbers Don’t Lie." — Underlines the book’s reliance on data and statistics to cut through societal narratives and wishful thinking.
- "The true economic nature of the pursuit of women is more of a gamble than it is an investment." — Frames dating and marriage as a lottery, not a rational investment, given the odds and costs.
- "Make sure you live your life to the best extent possible. And if some nice, sweet girl happens along the way, all the more power to you." — Encourages men to prioritize their own lives and happiness, with relationships as a possible bonus, not the main goal.
Review Summary
The Book of Numbers by Aaron Clarey receives mixed reviews. Many praise its statistical approach to dating and relationships, finding it insightful and thought-provoking. Readers appreciate Clarey's analysis of the costs associated with pursuing women and his advice to focus on self-improvement. However, critics argue the book is biased, contradictory, and oversimplifies complex issues. Some find the content offensive or misogynistic. Despite controversy, many readers recommend it as a valuable perspective on modern dating, particularly for young men seeking to understand relationship dynamics.
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